Drew Gooden now a Maverick

NBA teams understand the unpredictable nature of free agency. You can never know how a player will adjust to a new system, the effect a new player will have on the chemistry of a team or the effect of other intangible elements will have on a team.  Granted, some signings are a little easier to predict than others, but for the most part you cannot be sure the effect a free-agent will have on a team until some point well into the season.

Not one expert–not John Hollinger, not Mark Stein, not Mark Cuban nor Donnie Nelson–can accurately predict the effect the singing of Drew Gooden will have on the upcoming season, neither can I; however, I do have a few observations about the signing.

First, let’s examine the good.

Assuming that the Mavs use Gooden primarily as a 5, the Mavs have instantly improved what has traditionally been the lowest scoring position on their squad. I’ve thrown the numbers out there several times in the past few weeks, but Erick Dampier averages only 7.9 PPG for his career and averaged only 5.7 PPG last season.  Gooden averages exactly 12 PPG for his career.  I will say we should tap the brakes just a little in regards to scoring.  Gooden has played only sparingly at the 5 position throughout his career, so the numbers might not translate exactly to his new position, but he definitely posses the athletic tools necessary to be a much more effective offensive threat than Dampier.

Dampier constantly frustrates the Mavs coaching staff, teammates and fan base with his inability to finish on the offensive end. Gooden has better hands and a better shot, so one would think his scoring average would not drop too drastically moving down to the center position. The Mavs have struggled to score in the paint for several seasons and Gooden should be able to help those numbers. Gooden is also a much better free throw shooter than Dampier, which can come in handy late in the game.

Obviously, this makes Dampier expendable. A lot has been made about trade potential that Dampier’s expiring contract presents. It looked like we were faced with another season of Dampier and Ryan Hollins at the 5, but with Gooden signed, the Mavs can now re-sign Hollins and shop the Dampier contract.

Gooden also brings playoff experience in a more youthful body than Dampier. While Dampier has appeared in more playoff games (52) than Gooden (44), Gooden has started more playoff games (40) and logged more playoff minutes (1,191  minutes) than Dampier (32 games started; 1,150 minutes).  Gooden has averaged 10 points and 8 rebounds per game in the playoffs, while Dampier has averaged 5 points and 6 rebounds per game. Both have appeared in one NBA Finals, yet Gooden is seven years young than Damp. At 27, Gooden would be the baby of the starting line up.

It scares me that none of Gooden’s former teams showed much interest in him. He admitted himself on his Twitter account that he was surprised that neither Cleveland nor San Antonio showed “as much interest as other teams.”  The Cavs have never made it to the NBA Finals without Gooden, yet they didn’t seem to think he was vital enough to bring back to their team. I got to see Gooden first hand in the Mavs/Spurs series and was impressed with his limited play. I don’t know why the Spurs chose not to use him more. Evidently, there was something about him the coaches did not like.

It’s too early to tell whether or not this will end up being a good signing for the Mavs, but I definitely think it has some potential. Maybe not as much potential as Marcin Gortat and it’s definitely not as sexy as getting Shaq, but this could very easily upgrade the Mavs at the 5 position, which could help tremendously down the line.

—————-
Now playing: Merle Haggard – What Happened?
via FoxyTunes

How about Von Wafer

Entering the off-season, I felt the Mavericks’ three biggest needs were to address the center, shooting guard and lack of athleticism. It appeared that the Mavs had addressed the center situation by singing an offer sheet for Marcin Gortat; however, we all know how that worked out. While several rumors have swirled around regarding other potential deals to address the center position, none have materialized as of this time.

Acquiring Shawn Marion improves the athleticism of this team to some extent and the flashes that Rodrigue Beaubois has shown in his brief NBA Summer League career suggests tha the too could add some athleticism to this team. Yet this team still lacks the athleticism of many of their Western Conference counterparts.

The only thing the Mavs have done at the shooting guard position is the signing of Quinton Ross, who the front office says will provide defensive help and shoot the three. What they really mean to say is that Ross is just another Antoine Wright.  If we assume that the Mavericks will move Josh Howard to the starting shooting guard position, we can set the depth chart–Jason Terry will come in off the bench and get a majority of the minutes at the 2 and Ross will fill in, as needed, in specific situations. Theoretically, the Mavs are three deep at the 2 position.

I love what JET brings off the bench, but neither Ross nor Howard excite me.  My suggestion? Go for a change of pace, sign Von Wafer.  The little I saw of Wafer last year, I liked. He would instantly add a level of athleticism to this team that is asbsent. 

How would the rotation work at four deep? The move would make Josh Howard expendable. He could be shopped to someone like New Orleans, for Tyson Chandler, or to Charlotte, near his home, for someone like Emeka Okafor.

The Mavericks starting line-up would look something like this:

PG – Jason Kidd

SG- Von Wafer

SF – Shawn Marion

PF- Dirk Nowitzki

C – Emeka Okafor/Tyson Chandler

I realize the move has it drawbacks.  One, Wafer’s limited body of work and lack of starting experience. Terry would still get a majority of the minutes at the 2, but would start as a change of pace. Think of the way the Nuggets used Dahntay Jones last season (18.1 MPG, 5.4 PPG). Wafer put up better numbers (19.4 MPG, 9.7 PPG) as a reserve.

Could you get Okafor or Chandler for Howard? It’s worth shopping around. I hope the Mavs learned from the Gortat fiasco and would have a deal in place for Howard before inking Wafer. This is the key piece to making the deal work. If you can’t move Howard for an upgrade of Dampier, then there’s really no sense in pursuing Wafer. However, if the Mavs are serious about addressing two of the most glaring weaknesses, they should at least give Wafer a casual glance.

Life after Gortat…

It’s being reported that the Orlando Magic will match the Dallas Mavericks’ offer sheet on center Marcin Gortat.  While I was warming up to the Gortat signing, I don’t think the Magic’s move devstates the Mavericks’ off-season program.

The biggest acquistion was Shawn Marion. The Mavs dumped dead weight and got a major contributor in return. We won’t know the full effects of this season’s draft for a couple of seasons, but Rodrigue Beaubois is getting rave reviews early in summer league play. Even the signing of Quinton Ross has the potential to pay major dividends in the upcoming season, still many Mavs fans have been running for the panic button since the news first broke out of Orlando this afternoon.

I can understand the concern, especially after losing Brandon Bass. However, I’m an optimistic type of guy and I prefer to look at as a “glass half-full” situation. During the playoffs, outside of Dirk, the player on this team who impressed me the most was Ryan Hollins. Yes, he is young, raw and prone to some silly mistakes. On the other hand, he is YOUNG, energetic, athletic and long–a rare commodity on this team. With Bass and Gortat no longer options at the 5, barring any further moves before the start of the season, the Mavs will be forced to give Hollins more minutes, which is the best thing for him at this point in his career.

Will there be more moves? Probably. Shortly after the Marion trade, when it appeared that Gortat was on his way here, I wrote that I felt Donnie and Mark had more moves up their sleeves. After today, I’m even more convinced. Will the Mavs be forced to use the Erick Dampier trade chip a year earlier than desired? Perhaps, but I find it unlikely. If the Mavs deal Damp now, they will have to get another 5 in return. I just don’t see that player on the market.

Let’s talk about Orlando for a minute. I don’t claim to be an expert on Central Florida sports, but who the hell do they think they are? Yes, they have every right to play sneaky, but is a small market team like Orlando really ready to play the free-agency game with the big markets (i.e. LA, NYC, Dallas, etc.) Make no mistake about it, the Magic are rolling the dice, acquiring Vince Carter, Brandon Bass, bringing Gortat back and the whispers of interest Allen Iverson. What happens when the Magic can’t pay their luxury tax bill or, even worse, what happens on pay day and the Magic can’t make payroll? Are they going to come running to the Association to bail them out?

The Magic got a sniff of something beautiful in June and now they’ve become greedy. When you become greedy, you make bad decisions.  Mark my words, the Magic’s overly ambitious off season will come back to bite them in the ass before the end of the 2009-2010 season.

—————-
Now playing: Modest Mouse – I Came As A Rat
via FoxyTunes

Marcin Gortat

Thus far, the most compelling news of this NBA off-season has been the jail sentence of the Denver Nuggets’ J.R. Smith. Out of all the adjectives in the English language,  “underwhelming” best describes the Mavs draft picks–a Euro point guard, a mid-major project and a guard with potential who will spend a year in Greece. At first glance, I was equally unimpressed with the organizations interest in the 6-11 Marcin Gortat.

I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t watch much Orlando Magic basketball, and  Gortat’s 3 ppg and 4 rpg average doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. However, Gortat got those numbers as a back-up, averaging 12.6 minutes per game; Erick Dampier averaged 5/7, as a starter, in 23.0 minutes per game, so if the numbers hold, Gortat wouldn’t be much a drop off–production wise–from Dampier.

Perhaps the most exciting prospect Gortat brings is his youth. The Mavs looked old against the Nuggets and looked middle-aged against an ancient Spurs team. They need some youth. I still hope that Ryan Hollins is the future at center for this team, but a Gortat/Hollins combination is younger than a Dampier/Hollins combination and should translate into more energy on the court.

In order for this to be relevant, the Mavs must remain committed to the youth already on the team. This means going out and resigning Brandon Bass and ironically making sure Jason Kidd signs his three year offer. Kidd will be instrumental in shaping the future of this franchise. If we expect any of the young guard prospects on this team to develop, it will require Kidd’s experience and tutelage. Additionally, the Mavs must make sure they turn the expiring contracts of Jerry Stackhouse and Dampier into youthful contributors during the course of this off-season. I know it may be asking for too much, but it would be nice to get a young prospect in exchange for Devean George.

As I step back and look at it, the Gortat signing has potential as the first piece in a much bigger off-season puzzle for the Mavericks.  In order for it to work, the Mavs must make additional, more substantial moves this off-season.